PARIS, FRANCE The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil demand forecast upward for 2025, citing a combination of softening trade tensions and lower crude prices, which have encouraged broader consumption across industrial sectors and developing economies.
According to the agency’s latest Oil Market Report, global oil demand is now expected to reach 103.2 million barrels per day in 2025 a 300,000 bpd increase from previous estimates.
“We’re witnessing modest but measurable demand rebounds, particularly in emerging markets,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Improved trade flows and price stability have encouraged refineries and heavy industries to scale up operations.”
Key drivers of the revised forecast include:
- Lower oil prices, hovering around $72–$75 per barrel, making energy inputs more affordable;
- Resumption of manufacturing activity in Asia and Latin America;
- Stabilized U.S. China trade relations, reducing global supply chain disruptions;
- Higher petrochemical output in India, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia.
However, the IEA also cautioned that long-term structural changes, including the global energy transition and increased EV (electric vehicle) adoption, continue to apply downward pressure on oil demand growth in OECD countries.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has responded cautiously to the forecast, maintaining current production levels amid concerns of oversupply and lingering geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Analysts say this modest increase in demand does not signal a return to pre-pandemic oil consumption patterns but reflects a temporary rebound as global economies adjust to shifting energy priorities.
Environmental groups, however, criticized the IEA’s outlook, warning that higher oil demand could jeopardize global climate targets. “Any uptick in fossil fuel consumption is a step backward,” said Laura Klein of ClimateAction Now.
Still, energy markets welcomed the report, with Brent crude prices climbing 1.4%, and oil majors like ExxonMobil and BP seeing minor stock gains by market close.
